اولین کارگاه عملی تدوین سناریو توسط فدراسیون صنعت نفت ایران و با حمایت اتاق تهران برگزار شد.

دسته: اخبار روز , اخبار فدراسیون , سر تیتر اخبار
138 دیدگاه
شنبه - ۱۷ شهریور ۱۳۹۷

سازمان‌هاي امروزي در محيطي با پيچيدگي زياد و تغييرات سريع مواجه هستند و یکی از مشکلات عمده و عدیده بسیاری از مدیران در فضای کسب و کارشان، نداشتن تصویری یا تصاویری نزدیک به واقعیت‌های محتمل از آینده است.

نياز به انعطاف پذيري براي تغييرات آينده امري محسوس است که متاسفانه آن طور که باید بحث خاصي در مورد رسيدن به اين انعطاف پذيري صورت نگرفته است و هم‌چنين مطالعات مناسبي در مورد اكتشاف و شناسايي تغييراتي كه در آينده رخ خواهد داد، انجام نشده است. انعطاف پذيري در ظاهر به عنوان اطمينان يافتن از اين‌كه يك برنامه مي‌تواند به سرعت در مواجهه با حوادث خارجي غير منتظره مجددا نوشته شود، تعريف مي‌شود.

اين ايده كه برنامه مي‌تواند شامل ارزيابي در مورد اين‌كه چه حوادث غير منتظره‌اي احتمال دارد رخ دهد و چگونه سازمان به آن‌ها پاسخ مي‌دهد و سازمان به چه اطلاعاتي براي قضاوت در مورد اين حوادث نياز دارد به عنوان يك واقعيت خود را نمايان مي‌سازد.

فدراسیون صنعت نفت ایران با در نظر گرفتن شرایط کنونی، کارگاهی را با عنوان «کارگاه عملی تدوین سناریو» طراحی و با حمایت اتاق بازرگانی تهران برگزار نمود.

این کارگاه توسط اساتید فن به شرح پوستر پیوست به مدت ۸ ساعت (یک روز کاری کاملبرای دبیران تشکل‌ها و مدیران اجرایی آنان برنامه‌ریزی و در تاریخ ۱۳ شهریور ماه در مرکز آموزش اتاق بازرگانی تهران اجرا شد.

اولین کارگاه عملی تدوین سناریو توسط فدراسیون صنعت نفت ایران و با حمایت اتاق تهران

در ۱۳ شهریور ماه برگزار شد.

کارگاه عملی تدوین سناریو به منظور ارائه تعریف عینی و ملموس از جستجوی منابع، الگوها، و عوامل تغییر یا ثبات، با هدف تجسّم آینده‌های بالقوّه و برنامه‌ریزی برای آن‌ها برگزار شد.

سرفصل‌های ارائه شده:

  • مروری بر مفاهیم و مبانی آینده‌پژوهی
  • آشنایی با روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی
  • مفاهیم و مبانی روش سناریوپردازی
  • تدوین سناریو در عمل

در ابتدا معرفی اجمالی فدراسیون نفت و فعالیت های آن به خصوص در بخش کمیسیون آینده پژوهی صورت گرفت و به تمایز آینده‌پژوهی با غیب‌گویی، پیش‌گویی و پیش‌بینی پرداخته شد. در ادامه، مباحث آکادمیک و توضیحاتی در مورد تاریخچه آینده پژوهی ارائه شد. چالش های گروهی و فردی با سوال از زندگی خود راضی هستید شکل گرفت.

در ادامه، ۴ عامل روندها، رویدادها، اقدامات و تصاویر به عنوان عوامل شکل‌دهنده آینده با ارائه یک مثال توضیح داده شد. روش‌هـای آینده‌پـژوهی بـا استفاده از المـاس پـوپر معـرفی و روش‌هـای چـرخ آینـده، شبیه‌سازی، سینکون، بازار پیش‌‌گویی، چشم‌اندازهای چندگانه، تحلیل لایه‌ای علت‌ها و نقشه‌راه معرفی شدند.

مقدمات کارگاه عملی با گروه بندی اعضا صورت گرفت که هر گروه ۶ نفره موظف به 

ارائه گزارشی بر اساس موضوع پروژه بود. ماموریت اول هر گروه بحث حول چالش بهره‌مندی ایران از برجام در سال ۱۳۹۸ بود، در این حوزه می‌بایست تمامی اعضا در چهار بخش سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فناوری به بحث می‌پرداختند که هدف از این مباحثه، رویکردی آینده نگارانه بود.

 

 

بعد از یافتن پارامترهای اقتصادی، سیاسی و .. می‌بایست هر گروه پارامترهای دیگر گروه‌ها را بررسی نموده و سپس با ادغام موارد مشابه و اولویت دهی، به سه پارامتر اصلی دست یابند که این پارامترها می‌توانند تقویت کننده یا مهار کننده باشند.

از دیگر مسائل مورد بررسی، بازیگران اثرگذار بر این موضوع بود که این مهم نیز توسط افراد به سه اولویت (از نظر تاثیر و تمایل) منتهی شد. هدف از این قسمت، شبیه‌سازی یک فرایند واقعی تدوین سناریو بود.

 

بعد از ساعت ناهار و نماز، ادامه کارگاه عملی با رویکرد چالشی‌تر و نگاهی به آینده ترسیم شد؛

تهران ۱۴۲۰

هر گروه با ارائه پوستری با مطالب منتخب از مجلات روز، به صورت مصور آینده تهران را به تصویر کشیدند.

این کارگاه شروعی بر آینده پژوهی بود. در این فرصت محدود، مباحث کلیدی و منطق نرم افزارهای مرتبط گفته شد هر چند که نیازمند بسط و بررسی بیشتر این حوزه تاثیرگذار است.

بنابر نظرسنجی اعضا برای استاد، محتوا و سازماندهی دوره؛ تخصص و رفتار اجتماعی استاد دوره، آقای دکتر قلم‌بر، بیشترین تاثیر را داشته و تازگی محتوای دوره برای شرکت کنندگان از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار بوده است. هم‌چنین در بخش سازماندهی دوره، طرز برخورد دست اندرکاران، برای اعضای شرکت کننده قابل توجه بوده است. ارزیابی کل دوره حاکی از رضایت ۸۹ درصدی افراد است.

 

 


نوشته شده توسط:داود امیر احمدی - 164 مطلب
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