here are several neutral or negative drivers for prices this week, which colors our view of what is happening to gas prices this week; Supply: Positive, Storage: Negative, Weather: Negative, Demand: Neutral, Flows: Neutral, Trader Sentiment: Neutral.

دسته: ویژه بین الملل
29 دیدگاه
یکشنبه - ۲۳ دی ۱۳۹۷
نشانه‌های اولیه حاکی از آن است که برداشت در هفته دوم ژانویه به بیش از ۲۰۰ میلیارد بشکه در روز برسد. تغییرات ذخیره‌سازی در حال حاضر منفی تلقی می‌شود.
در مورد آب‌وهوا، بازار گاز طبیعی در سال جدید آن‌چنان داغ نیست چون دمای فصلی (زمستان) بالا رفته است و به‌این‌ترتیب تقاضای گرمایش به نظر می‌رسد کمتر از هفته‌های اول زمستان ۲۰۱۸-۲۰۱۹ باشد. اثرات آب‌وهوایی به‌عنوان یک عامل منفی برای قیمت گاز طبیعی در این هفته تلقی می‌شود.
گزارش ۱۰ ژانویه نشان می‌دهد احتمالاً تقاضای زیرمجموعه صنایع تحت تأثیر تعطیلات سال نو است. اثر یک هفته کاری معمولی در سطوح تقاضای صنعتی، هفته آینده مشخص می‌شود؛ بنابراین پیش‌بینی می‌شود در هفته جاری یک اثر ترکیبی خنثی از سمت تقاضا بر قیمت رخ دهد.
در مورد جریان، شرایط پیچیده یا بدی رخ نداده‌است که اثری، مثبت یا منفی بگذارد.
در مورد تمایل معامله‌گران، پیش‌بینی اثر نسبتاً مثبتی با توجه به گزارش‌های ۱۰ ژانویه انتظار می‌رفت زیرا سطح ذخیره کمتر از حد نرمال بود. قیمت گاز طبیعی احتمالاً تا ۳ دلار برای هر MMBtu کاهش یابد، درحالی‌که این زمستان، قیمت گاز به ۴۵ دلار برای هر MMBtu رسیده است؛ بنابراین اثر وضعیت معاملاتی خنثی تلقی می‌شود.
MMBtu = یک میلیون واحد حرارتی بریتانیایی (BTU)

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